Application of a breakpoint model to population growth in Türkiye

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Abstract

Using data from the Macrotrends database, this paper investigated the change and differences in population growth (POPG) as a result of the impact of its key determinants employing a breakpoint model. A regression analysis confirms the presence of persistent differences in the POPG in Türkiye over the period 1965 – 2021. Using the Bai-Perron sequential breakpoint method, four statistically significant breaks at 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013 and consequently to that five regimes were ascertained. The results clearly show a worthy of attention difference in the mean of the crude death rate, total fertility rate, as well as net migration rate within all of these five regimes. Furthermore, the results reveal clear evidence that the POPG is characterized with statistically different trends compared to the period prior and after the years of breaks and different regimes. This indicates that circumstances affecting the mortality, migrations, and fertility in terms of the number of live births and deaths as well as migration trends in the country before and after these indicated years in Türkiye have been largely influenced by the different dynamics of the socioeconomic conditions and different contexts in Turkish society.

Keywords

Population growth rate

Total fertility rate

Crude mortality rate

Net rate of migration

Breakpoint model

Türkiye

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