Managing natural disaster risk with earthquake damage scenarios and shakeout exercises: Lessons from Mw = 8 Mandi multi-stakeholders scenario in India
Scientifically simulated Earthquake Damage Scenario (EDS) and Shakeout exercises help the policymakers to set up emergency plans for the immediate consequences and medium-long-term mitigation and prevention for a seismic event. The purpose of this study is to draw important lessons and a deeper understanding of issues and challenges in planning and implementing such exercises in a highly populous developing country like India. The Government of India developed a first-ever multi-state and multi-stakeholders EDS naming Mw = 8 Mandi and conducted a Mega Multicity Shakeout Exercise in the Western Himalayan Region during 2014. A cross-sectional research design consisting of a mainly qualitative research approach using a multi-stakeholders perspective approach was used to factor key lessons. The scenario development and shakeout exercise faced several challenges such as lack of awareness among concerned stakeholders, lack of technical know-how at the grass-root level, lack of poor coordination among various stakeholders, and unavailability of data on important issues. Due to the lack of understanding of the sensitivity of the issue, the success of implementation largely depends on the involvement of the top leadership of state governments. Scientific EDS exercises followed by mega shakeout exercises helped not only the community up to some extent but also mainly helped administration, government agencies in generating awareness of the earthquake and possible risk attached to it.
Altay N and Green WG. (2006). OR/MS Research in Disaster Operations Management. European Journal of Operational Research, 175(1):475-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.05.016.
Arai T. (2006). Key Points of Scenario Analysis. Financial Systems and Bank Examination Department, Bank of Japan. Available at https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2006/data/fsc0608be2.pdf.
Arya AS. (1992). Possible Effects of a Major Earthquake in the Kangra Region of Himachal Pradesh. Current Science, 62(1):251-6.
Bore DM and Atkinson GM. (2008). Ground Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at Spectral Periods Between 0.01s and 10.0s. Earthquake Spectra, 24(1):99-138. https://doi. org/10.1193/1.2830434.
Brainard C, Ladd D and Tappen JE. (2019). Integrating Earthquake Preparedness at IIT-Mandi. Available from: https://www. digitalcommons.wpi.edu/iqp-all/5431. [Last accessed on 2020 Mar 14].
Devi TK. (2012). Seismic Hazard and its Mitigation, a Review. International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering, 2(11):517-22.
Dolce M, Kappos A, Masi A, Penelis G and Vona M. (2006). Vulnerability Assessment and Earthquake Damage Scenarios of the Building Stock of Potenza (Southern Italy) Using Italian and Greek Methodologies. Engineering Structures, 28(3):357-71. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2005.08.009.
Duzgun HS, Yucemen MS, Kalaycioglu HS, Celik K, Kemec S, Ertugay K and Deniz A. (2011). An Integrated Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Urban Areas. Natural Hazards, 59(2):917. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9808-6.
Engelmann H and Fiedrich F. (2007). Decision Support for the Members of an Emergency Operation Centre After an Earthquake. Netherlands: In Proceedings of the 4th International ISCRAM Conference-delft.
Filmer LB and Ranse J. (2013). Who is My Leader? A Case Study from a Hospital Disaster Scenario in a Less Developed Country. Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal, 16(4):170-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aenj.2013.08.004.
Goltz JD, Park H, Nakano G and Yamori K. (2020). Earthquake ground motion and human behavior: Using DYFI data to assess behavioral response to earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, Online First. https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019899958.
Guragain R, Jimee G and Dixit AM. (2008). Earthquake Awareness and Effective Planning Through Participatory Risk Assessment: An Experience from Nepal. Beijing: In Proceedings of 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (14WCEE). p12-7.
Hosseini M and Izadkhah YO. (2010). Training Emergency Managers for Earthquake Response: Challenges and Opportunities. Disaster Prevention and Management, 19(2):185-98. https://doi.org/10.1108/09653561011037995.
Imran M, Castillo C, Diaz F and Vieweg S. (2015). Processing Social Media Messages in Mass Emergency: A Survey. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 47(4):1-38. https://doi.org/10.1145/2771588.
India Meteorological Department. (2002). Seismic Zoning Map of India. Available from: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/seismo/static/ seismo-zone.htm. [Last accessed on 2015 Mar 14].
Jaiswal K and Wald DJ. (2008). Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management. United States: USGS Open-File Report-1160.
Kaur J. (2006). Administrative Issues Involved in Disaster Management in India. International Review of Psychiatry, 18(6):553-7. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540260601038449.
Larsson G, Bynander F, Ohlsson F, Schyberg E and Holmberg M. (2015). Crisis Management at the Government Offices: A Swedish Case Study. Disaster Prevention and Management, 24(5):542-52. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm-11-2014-0232.
McBride SK, Becker JS and Johnston DM. (2019). Exploring the Barriers for People Taking Protective Actions During the 2012 and 2015 New Zealand Shake Out Drills. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 37:101150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ijdrr.2019.101150.
McBride SK, Llenos AL, Page MT and van der Elst N. (2020). Earthquake Advisory: Exploring Discourse Between Government Officials, News Media, and Social Media during the 2016 Bombay Beach Swarm. Seismological Research Letters, 91(1):438-51. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190082.
Meena M, Shinde R, Sapre A, Sinha RK, Goyal AS, Dasgupta K, Kaushik HB, Kharagpur I, Dhang N, Chakrabarty S, Deb A, Madras I, Menon A, Rahul A and Sood A. (2013). Technical Document (Tec-Doc) on Seismic Vulnerability Functions of Building Types in India. New Delhi, India: National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Available from: https://www.ndma.gov.in/images/ pdf/2%20Building%20Typology%20Report.pdf. [Last accessed on 2020 Mar 31].
Musacchio G, Falsaperla S, Bernhardsdóttir AE, Ferreira MA, Sousa ML, Carvalho A and Zonno G. (2016). Education: Can a Bottom-up Strategy Help for Earthquake Disaster Prevention? Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 14(7):2069-86. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10518-015-9779-1.
Muto M and Krishnan S. (2011). Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst: Response of Tall Steel Buildings to the Shakeout Scenario Earthquake. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2):375-98. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3563621.
Porter K, Jones L, Cox D, Goltz J, Hudnut K, Mileti D and Wein A. (2011). The Shake Out Scenario: A Hypothetical Mw7. 8 Earthquakes on the Southern San Andreas Fault. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2):239-61. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3563624.
Sharma R, Sharma M, Singh R and Koushal V. (2014). SWOT Analysis of an Earthquake Mock Drill: A Case Study. International Journal of Health System and Disaster Management, 2(3):142. https://doi.org/10.4103/2347-9019.142193.
Shaw R, Gupta M and Sarma A. (2003). Community Recovery and its Sustainability: Lessons from Gujarat Earthquake of India. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 18(2):28.
Sinha R, Goyal A, Krishna C and Vishnoi P. (2012). Earthquake Risk Assessment of North-Western Himalaya for Disaster Risk Management. India: Proceedings of ISET Golden Jubilee Symposium, Indian Society of Earthquake Technology, Department of Earthquake Engineering Building, IIT Roorkee.
Sinha R, Aditya K and Gupta A. (2008). GIS-based Urban Seismic Risk Assessment Using RISK.iitb. ISET Journal of Earthquake Technology, 45(3-4):4163.
Sinha R, Goyal A, Murty CV, Krishna C, Meena M and Shinde R. (2014). Mw=8.0 Mandi Earthquake Disaster Scenario for Disaster Risk Management: Detailed Project Report. Available from: http://www.ndma.gov.in/images/cbt/Scenario-Manual.pdf. [Last accessed on 2015 Jan 01].
Tucker BE. (1992). Uses of Earthquake Damage Scenarios. United States: GeoHazards International.
Wald DJ, Quitoriano V, Heaton TH and Kanamori H. (1999). Relationships Between Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California. Earthquake Spectra, 15(3):557-64. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586058.
Waugh WL and Streib G. (2006). Collaboration and Leadership for Effective Emergency Management. Public Administration Review, 66(s1):131-40. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2006.00673.x.
Wein A and Rose A. (2011). Economic Resilience Lessons from the Shake Out Earthquake Scenario. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2):559- 73. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3582849.
Yin J, Karimi S, Lampert A, Cameron M, Robinson B and Power R. (2015). Using Social Media to Enhance Emergency Situation Awareness. In: A 24th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. California, United States: AAAI Press.
Zhang J, Santosh M, Wang X, Guo L, Yang X and Zhang B. (2012). Tectonics of the Northern Himalaya Since the India-Asia Collision. Gondwana Research, 21:939-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2011.11.004.